MPs return to Ottawa Monday in preparation for a vote that could send Canadians back to the polls just seven months after the last federal election.
Following a short, one-week break, federal politicians will cast their vote on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget since the Liberals’ re-election in April.
That election left Carney with a minority government, meaning he needs the support of at least one party – or for a few members to miss the vote – to pass bills and to stave off another campaign.
The Liberals currently have 170 seats in the House, two short of a majority, but with Francis Scarpaleggia as the Speaker, the government only has 169 votes they can count on.
On Friday, Global News asked Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s office if they planned to whip the vote to ensure all its MPs voted against the budget, but did not receive a clear response.
“Conservatives will be voting against Carney’s costly credit card budget that drives up the cost of living on every Canadian,” said Poilievre’s communications director, Katy Merrifield.
The Bloc Quebecois has signalled it would not vote for the budget.
Green Party MP Elizabeth May has said she won’t vote for the budget as it currently stands, but she has been talking with Carney about amendments that could change her vote.
Should May and all Conservative and Bloc MPs vote against the budget, that would account for 166 votes, four short of defeating it.
Get breaking National news
For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.
If May joins the Liberals, that would only give the government 170 votes, requiring two other MPs to vote with them.
NDP Leader Don Davies signalled openness to working with the government, but did not say how his party would vote on the budget.
“Canadians elected a minority government, they gave no single party enough seats to govern alone, they sent a clear message they wanted parliamentarians to work together on the serious challenges facing our country,” he said in a speech at a B.C. NDP convention Saturday in Victoria. “Canada’s New Democrats are doing what we always do, we’ve put forward ideas that would make life better for working people, and we’re open to working with the government to get those things done.”
Davies cited issues such as building affordable housing in large numbers, strengthening public health care and creating good-paying jobs, “especially for young people and traditionally disadvantaged groups.”
If the Liberals do get the support of the NDP, it would equal 176 votes, enough to pass the budget.
The government could also avoid a potential fall on Monday if some opposition MPs don’t vote, such as what happened earlier this month when four Conservative MPs missed a vote on amendments to the budget that were deemed confidence measures.
Ontario MP Michael Chong said he was travelling and had issues voting electronically, and Alberta MP Shannon Stubbs said she missed the vote due to a medical issue. Alberta MP Laila Goodridge issued an email statement to say she was in Chad at a meeting of Francophonie parliamentarians and that she plans to participate in the main vote on the budget on Nov 17. Matt Jeneroux, who announced shortly after the budget was presented that he plans to quit as an MP, also missed the two votes but did not respond to a request for comment.
Just four absences by MPs would put the government and the four opposition parties at 169 a piece, forcing a tie that would see Scarpaleggia cast the tie-breaking vote. In most cases, parliamentary tradition has seen the Speaker vote with the government to maintain the status quo, meaning the budget would likely pass even if a tie occurs.
—with files from Global News’ Mackenzie Gray
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
