Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has officially shared his plans to resign as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, so what happens now?
Trudeau made the announcement in Ottawa on Monday morning after days of speculation that he would step down before an important national caucus meeting on Wednesday, January 8.
“Last night, over dinner, I told my kids about the decision that I’m sharing with you today,” he said at a press conference outside of his residence, Rideau Cottage. “I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its next leader through a robust, nationwide competitive process.”
He added Governor General Mary Simon had granted his request for the House of Commons to be prorogued until March 24.
The resignation comes amid mounting pressure from members of parliament calling on Trudeau to step down after Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s shocking resignation from cabinet on December 16.
We spoke with Stewart Prest, a lecturer at the University of British Columbia’s political science department, about what could happen next.
What does it mean to prorogue parliament?
The House defines the prorogation of Parliament as “the termination of a session.”
“The principal effect of ending a session by prorogation is to terminate business. Members are released from their parliamentary duties until Parliament is next summoned.”
In other words, it’s a reset for Parliament and gives the Liberal Party time to vote in a new leader without interference from opposition parties trying to push out the Liberal government, Prest explained.
“It’s an opportunity for any government, and it’s pretty typical for governments to use this from time to time, to present a new agenda when they want to go into a new direction,” he said.
According to the House, any bills that haven’t passed into law “die” during prorogation. The government can choose to resurrect those bills once the prorogation period is over.
Prest said the decision to prorogue parliament is a little controversial because all opposition leaders have recently stated they want to cast a non-confidence vote.
“But the governor general didn’t really have much wiggle room other than to grant this prorogation, given that the last time there was a confidence vote, the government did have the support of the House,” he explained.
What will selecting a new Liberal leader look like? How long will it take?
Trudeau also announced he’s asked the president of the Liberal Party, Sachit Mehra, to begin the process of selecting its next leader.
Mehra confirmed in a post on X that he will call a meeting of the National Board this week “to begin the nationwide democratic process of selecting a new leader of the party.”
The Liberal Party’s constitution instructs the board to appoint an interim leader, but the outgoing leader can also choose to stay on until a new leader is voted in, which is what Trudeau has done.
Prest said prospective leaders normally have months to speak to party members to build support. However, that timeline has been compressed since prorogation ends on March 24.
The party’s constitution states candidates must provide a written nomination with 300 signatures (at least 100 of which from each of the three provinces or territories) from registered Liberals to the president at least 90 days before the leadership vote.
“That really gives less than three months of runway for the race to be organized, conducted and completed,” explained Prest. “I think it’s going to be a very rushed business, both for the party to articulate the specific rules [for voting]… and then to actually conduct the campaign itself.”
The total district points from across the country are then counted for each candidate. The first candidate to get more than 50 per cent of the points becomes the Liberal leader.
The candidate with the least number of points is eliminated if nobody gets more than 50 per cent of the first count. Their ballots would then be distributed among the remaining competitors based on voters’ second preference.
Who is in the running to replace Trudeau?
The Liberal Party’s constitution states that candidates must be registered with the party and can run for office in a general federal election.
“Given the short runway, I think the winner is likely to be somebody already at the front of the race,” explained Prest.
He said former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is “arguably the frontrunner” now.
“She enjoys a great deal of support within the Liberal caucus, which is important, and is able to organize now that she is no longer a member of the Liberal cabinet,” explained Prest.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is another prominent name that has popped up.
“[He] clearly enjoys a great deal of support in the party, given that there have been repeated efforts to recruit him into cabinet and into a leading role,” Prest said.
He added that cabinet ministers like Melanie Jolie or Dominic LeBlanc could be in the running, but they would be long shots compared to Freeland and Carney.
Lastly, Prest said former BC Premier Christy Clark “seems very eager to throw her hat in the ring as well,” but added that her candidacy would be a long shot.
“There’s a potential path there where she can articulate that the Liberals are in desperate need of a different direction,” he explained. “They’ve lost the trust of the majority of Canadians, so a bigger change is necessary. I think she’ll be making that argument.”
Challenges the Liberal Party faces
First off, the Liberals are far behind in the polls.
“If the current polls were to hold, in an election, they are headed for a significant defeat, and the Conservatives would win a comfortable majority government,” predicted Prest.
He said a significant factor impacting the polls is Canadians’ frustration with the government’s “inability to address some of the issues that continually pop up for Canadians.”
Those issues include housing affordability and skyrocketing food costs.
Prest said that because of this, younger voters in Canada seem more willing to vote right-of-centre for a more populous party.
“That is working in the Conservatives’ favour, and so until [the Liberals] can find a way to win those voters back, to suggest that they do not only hear those voters, but are able to do what they are asking in terms of restoring access to housing and other aspects of, I think you could call it an ambition, or the hope of achieving a prosperous life,” he explained.
Could there be an early election?
Once the Liberal Party has a new leader and prorogation is over, a confidence vote could lead to an early election.
“If the opposition leaders all follow through with their present commitments, and that, of course, is a big if, particularly with the NDP, which has so far voted to support the government, then we could be looking at a spring election with a new Liberal leader,” said Prest.
He said this may be frustrating for Canadians but stressed that it’s important for citizens to follow along and understand the consequences of their choices.
“I think it may be a period of some anxiety, given that the country is going to continue to feel the pressures imposed by a new president in the United States who is clearly much more willing than his predecessors to involve himself and challenge Canadians,” said Prest.
US President-elect Donald Trump reacted to Trudeau’s resignation on Truth Social, doubling down on his remarks about Canada becoming the 51st state.
“Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st state. The United States can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this and resigned,” he said.
“If Canada merged with the US, there would be no tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great nation it would be!!!”
