Former Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe thinks the writing’s on the wall for the federal Liberals — which is why no one is clamouring to replace beleaguered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ahead of the next election.
In an interview with Mercedes Stephenson that aired Sunday on The West Block, Duceppe said he’s heard from Liberals in Quebec who are unhappy with Trudeau’s leadership and the party’s electoral prospects. But with no one waiting in the wings to chart a new course, there’s little that can be done.
“They’re not happy, but they don’t have another choice,” he said.
“The problem is, nobody is ready to replace Trudeau or want to replace Trudeau because they know they will lose. So it’s not very interesting running when you know you will suffer a very severe defeat.”
Trudeau and the Liberals have spent more than a year in a double-digit polling deficit against Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative party, but Trudeau has repeatedly insisted he will lead the Liberals in the next federal election.
A number of Liberal MPs have signed on to an internal document calling on Trudeau to step aside, which is expected to be raised at the next caucus meeting on Wednesday. Last week saw four more ministers tell Trudeau they won’t run for re-election, adding to a growing cabinet exodus and other MP resignations this year.
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The Liberals in recent weeks also lost two key byelections in the Toronto and Montreal areas that they had held for years. The latter riding, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, was narrowly won by the Bloc, whose fortunes appear on the rise.
Duceppe said while the Conservatives have eaten away at Liberal votes in Quebec, Poilievre is also not well liked in the province, which has allowed the Bloc to ascend.
“People don’t like that kind of style (of Poilievre’s, where) it is slogan after slogan without, I would say, any concrete measures to offer to people,” he said.
“So the division of the vote plays in favour of the Bloc since the Francophones are supporting the Bloc.”
That electoral state-of-play in Quebec means a number of top Liberal MPs who could potentially succeed Trudeau are in tough races for re-election.
One such name being floated, Innovation and Science Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, is currently projected to be in a dead heat with the Bloc in his riding of Saint-Maurice—Champlain — which includes the city of Shawinigan, the birthplace of former prime minister Jean Chretien.
“Just imagine, he’d be losing Shawinigan while leading the Liberal party,” Duceppe said. “It could be a Kim Campbell second act.”
Duceppe wouldn’t say if the Bloc’s popularity means renewed support for Quebec sovereignty, but noted it could become a bigger issue if the Parti Quebecois has a strong showing or even wins in the next provincial election slated for 2026.
“There’s still two years, and two years in politics is a lot of time,” he said.
The Bloc, meanwhile, is making the most of the situation.
Although the next federal election must occur by October 2025, the minority government could be toppled at any time after the NDP pulled out of a supply-and-confidence agreement in the summer.
The Liberals have survived two confidence motions so far. Yet Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet has said his party won’t support the government past the end of this month unless it gets support for its legislative priorities, including enhanced seniors benefits and supply management.
Duceppe said Blanchet should “keep running like he’s doing and be honest with people” while pursuing concrete policies in Ottawa.
As for Trudeau, Duceppe said he may survive the current revolt from his caucus — but not the one that may be brewing from Canadian voters.
“I don’t see (the Liberals) winning the next election,” he said. “Not at all.”
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