Predictions that Toronto’s housing market would see a triumphant return of the enthusiasm and heat it’s historically known for have fallen flat thus far, with sales continuing to dwindle far below hopes and expectations, and new listings continuing to pour onto the market.
Nearly 20,000 homes are now up for sale within the GTA, per the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s numbers for January, marking a worrying 48.6 per cent uptick in new listings and 70.2 per cent increase in active listings compared to this time last year.
The number of sales transactions, meanwhile, has fallen 7.9 per cent over the same time frame, disheartening realtors and sellers who were expecting a bounceback after an abysmal 2024.
RBC economists really put these numbers into perspective in a new special housing report that this month compared how the real estate scenes in major cities across Canada are faring.
One graph shows Toronto to have the third-biggest year-over-year drop in the number of homes switching hands out of six major markets assessed (after Fraser Valley’s -12.8 per cent and Calgary’s -12 per cent), but the largest jump in new listings (of the aforementioned 48.6 per cent, compared to Vancouver’s 46.9 per cent, which was mitigated somewhat by an 8.8 rise in sales).
Chart from RBC
Though the bank notes that the GTA saw a 10 per cent increase between December 2024 and January 2025 when the stats were seasonally adjusted, it says that “the bigger story was the 26 per cent spike in new listings between [the two months].”
“Many sellers may be jostling for position ahead of the spring season in anticipation of a strong rebound in demand [and] buyers have a lot more choices before them,” the report reads.
It adds that there have not been this many active real estate listings in the city in a whopping 16 years, since 2009, and that this is, in turn, pushing down on prices.
“The MLS home price index remained unchanged from December and was up only 0.5 per cent year-over-year. Still, condo prices are eroding — down 3.4 per cent from a year ago — in the face of plenty of inventory.”
