- Gregory Jack is a senior vice-president with Ipsos Public Affairs in Canada and one of the principal researchers on Trump, Tariffs and Turmoil.
As the second half of summer kicks off and the Aug. 1 deadline set by United States President Donald Trump has passed, Canada doesn’t seem any further ahead on making a trade deal with the U.S.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has long said that any deal must benefit Canada; the fact that no deal has emerged suggests the government has yet to see something that meets this condition.
In July, Ipsos asked Canadians whether they thought Trump was bluffing, and 36 per cent of Canadians said they believed he was. Trump, it turns out, wasn’t bluffing. The president’s announcement of a 35 per cent tariff on non-CUSMA-compliant goods came into force as of Aug. 1.
How long these punitive tariffs — layered on top of additional aluminum, auto and forestry tariffs — will last remains to be seen. What is clear now is that we are in uncharted waters leading up to the fall, when Parliament returns, with “national security” a catch-all for more U.S. tariffs.
Canada’s negotiating position seemed to be complicated by Carney’s announcement that Canada would recognize a Palestinian state in September, subject to some conditions — at least according to a Truth Social post from the president.
Trump immediately linked that decision with the declining chance of a trade deal, further underlining that every action Canada takes could be tied to decisions about tariffs.
Carney may have done this to give both sides an out. If he fails to keep Canada’s “elbows up,” it will invite criticism from every side of the political spectrum.
Still, Carney seems to have the public on his side.
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Ipsos has tracked Canadians’ views on the relationship with the U.S. since February, and our latest Trump, Tariff and Turmoil results show that trust has been broken for some time.
In February, 57 per cent of Canadians agreed “we can never trust the Americans the same way again.”
In July, that number stood at 59 per cent, and that was before the president unleashed tariffs on Canada.
Some in the Trump administration seem to have been confused by Canada’s reaction. U.S. ambassador Pete Hoekstra has said that he still doesn’t fully understand how personal and aggressive some Canadians have become on this issue.
But the data makes it clear the answer isn’t a big mystery.
In addition to feeling like trust has been broken with the U.S., Canadians feel the relationship is rapidly deteriorating.
In July, two-in-three Canadians (63 per cent) felt the relationship between Canada and the U.S. had gotten worse over the period prior to the poll, and again, this was before the latest developments.
Close to half (48 per cent) say they’ve bought fewer products made in the United States, or stopped buying American products altogether, led by baby boomers (65 per cent). In June, we found that boomers continue to be the generation who are most likely to boycott travelling to the U.S. (42 per cent).
Nonetheless, Canadians do have some belief that the American administration does not represent American companies. Over half (53 per cent) say if a company is American-owned but makes its products in Canada, it’s OK to support them.
That measure has steadily risen since February, when only 42 per cent held that view.
Canadians appear to have taken a nuanced view of the current dispute, despite their evident anger and confusion at the administration for what many see as a betrayal by their closest ally and friend.
In the recent words of former prime minister Stephen Harper, “That is something we can’t forget.”
Harper recently called for expanding Canada’s trade markets to other nations, an opinion that is shared by Canadians, who wholeheartedly agree, with many saying that Canada’s future is better served by aligning with like-minded countries in Europe rather than the U.S.
Of course, this is easier said than done.
In the dog days of summer, Carney has a serious challenge ahead of him. He has opted not to make what he and his team consider a bad deal for Canada, concluding that no deal is better than a bad one, despite the uncertainty it brings.
Carney now has a variety of options before him.
He can levy further retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. — something he’s avoided so far, but something 60 per cent of Canadians agree with, even if it means paying more for things.
He can simply do nothing and hold out, hoping that Canadian businesses can absorb the new non-CUSMA tariffs, or even offer further bailouts to affected businesses.
Or he could fold and sign a short-term deal.
Most likely, Carney will play for time and give himself a chance to find new markets and negotiate a new deal.
When this all started in February, the goal was clearly a zero-tariff agreement. That option does not appear to be on the table any longer, as countries sign deals with baseline tariffs far lower than what Canada now faces.
It’s clear tariffs are here to stay. Canadians need to buckle up and prepare for further turmoil.
Going into the fall, when Parliament returns, things will be messy.
The prime minister needs to use the time he has to land an impossible compromise that Canadians will support, and that may be the most difficult task of all.
