Canada looms over Lance Thrailkill’s office as a dead, stuffed bird.
Mounted above the Texas manufacturer’s desk, a Canada goose, flanked by a mallard and four deer heads, fixes a glassy stare on the room. An open bottle of rye whiskey sits on the floor below.
It is a fitting backdrop for a conversation about another Canadian presence hanging over Thrailkill’s business: the escalating trade war between Washington and Ottawa.
At All Metals Fabricating, the third-generation family company he runs near Dallas, the price Thrailkill pays for aluminum has risen 84 per cent since tariffs were first introduced by the US in March 2025, he says. In 2026 alone, it’s up 40 per cent, he says.
But for Thrailkill, the financial pain has not become a political liability – at least not enough to change his vote.
“Certainly, the inability to get a deal done with Canada affects my … approval rating of Trump,” he says. “But it’s not going to change my vote because of all the other things that align with pro-small business, less taxes.”
That distinction is at the heart of Canada’s political gamble.
In August, after Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to impose retaliatory tariffs on products from eight politically pivotal states, including Texas.
“Products from these states should face the full force of Canada’s response,” Ford wrote in a letter dated Aug. 17, days before trade talks between the two countries collapsed. The following day, Carney announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs.
But Canada’s retaliation is only one part of a much broader tariff fight. With the midterms approaching, the bigger question is whether tariffs are becoming a political headwind for Trump – and whether Canada’s economic pressure will translate into votes against him at the ballot box on Nov. 3.
With control of Congress being fought over in a narrow field of competitive races, even small shifts in voter sentiment could matter: Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate contests and 21 House races as toss-ups, including Senate races in Texas.
Dallas offered a rare opportunity to test that political calculus.
Last week, Republicans gathered there for the party’s first midterm convention, hoping to rally supporters ahead of November. Yet inside the arena, a trade war that has overwhelmed political debate in Canada barely registered.
Several Texans and Republican voters interviewed by Global inside the American Airlines Center were only vaguely familiar with the dispute with Canada. Those who were aware of it often repeated Trump’s broader argument that other countries had taken advantage of the US, even as they acknowledged frustration with tariffs, prices, or Trump himself. When asked about tariffs, some answered they believed America had been too generous to the rest of the world.
Canada, in other words, was less a major topic of conversation than a bit character in a much larger political grievance.
GOP members, however, were quick to defend the US president.
Asked whether going into the midterms amid a trade war and a conflict with Iran was wise, he replied: “No, that’s probably not the best recipe.” He nevertheless argued that Republican voters would reward Trump for being willing to fight on their behalf.
Texas might seem like fertile ground for that political risk to play out. Its economy is deeply tied to Canada, yet the relationship barely registers with many voters.
Texas and Canada exchanged nearly US$69 billion in goods in 2025, while 830 Canadian-owned businesses employ more than 104,000 Texans. Plastics, computers, trucks and aircraft move north; Canadian automobiles, engines, aluminum and vehicle parts move south; and crude petroleum travels in both directions.
Those economic ties create the potential for political pressure. Republicans have dominated statewide politics for three decades, but this year’s US Senate race is unusually competitive, with Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in several recent polls.
Trump’s popularity is waning, too.
An Ipsos poll conducted after Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed found 57 per cent of Americans opposed additional tariffs on Canada.
Trump’s own approval rating remains low — about 35 per cent, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, barely above a recent second-term low of 33 per cent. Tracking from public opinion research firm Civiqs found his net approval had also declined in seven of the eight states Ford urged Ottawa to target.
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There are signs, then, of political vulnerability for Trump, but Canada is an unlikely culprit.
“The size of the Canadian economy is just not large enough to engage in a full-blown trade war with the United States for very long,” says Dawson. “And it’s small business that gets hit first by that.”
Canada may be able to make Americans pay for the trade war. The harder question is whether Trump will be stuck with the political cheque.
The economic consequences of the confrontation are easier to identify.
After Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed on Aug. 21, Ottawa escalated its response, imposing retaliatory tariffs on roughly $28 billion worth of U.S. goods.
It is unclear whether Ford’s proposed targets influenced Ottawa’s 648-item list. But the measures, which took effect Sept. 8, covered steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, plastics and electronics – industries with a significant presence in several of the states he named.
That day, when Global News visited Thrailkill at his workshop, he was once again requoting customers as retaliatory tariffs pushed costs higher.
“We’re having to requote every job trying to get in front of it. It’s going up every week,” he said.
About a third of his orders involve aluminum. They buy through distributors supplied by mills, many of which source from Canada, meaning tariff costs can compound as they move through the supply chain.
While he supports Trump’s “overall vision” on trade, he says his business is being negatively affected. He also criticizes the president, saying the way he talks to people is “wrong.”
But he still plans to vote Republican.
“He actually does what he says he’s going to do. And like it or not, that’s more than you can say about most political people,” says Thrailkill.
That refrain came up repeatedly.
Every Trump voter Global News spoke with applauded his perceived follow-through, and often echoed his argument that the US has carried an unfair burden in global trade.
“He’s saying everybody’s been taking advantage of the US all these years and I’m putting a stop to it – we’re not going to subsidy this country and that,” AirTractor CEO Jim Hirsch told Global News at an Olive Garden outside Dallas.
His company imports engines from Canada, though it is exempt from tariffs.
“If we had to pay 25 per cent on the engines, it would be hurting us really hard,” Hirsch said, acknowledging that direct exposure could change some voters’ minds.
But a clearer example of a company caught in the crosshairs of the trade fight sits in a nearby small town.
As Republicans converged on the city, Trump threatened to ban sales of Canadian aircraft maker Bombardier in the U.S. unless it moved production there.
Bombardier responded by pointing out that major components of its aircraft are already produced in the US.
In fact, its facility in Red Oak, a town of about 20,000 people about 30 kilometres south of Dallas, employs 440 full-time Texas workers and a network of specialized contractors to manufacture jet wings.
Red Oak Mayor Mark Stanfill told Global News the factory has a “significant, tangible impact” on the community and local economy.
Stanfill said he appreciated Trump’s efforts to bring more manufacturing and investment to the US, but said Red Oak’s Bombardier operation is “an example of exactly that.” Similarly, in Wichita, Kansas, where Bombardier has its U.S. headquarters, Mayor Lily Wu has also spoken out to protect local jobs.
But both stopped short of criticizing Trump.
That reluctance illustrates the limits of turning economic exposure into political pressure. Canada also enters the fight from a weaker economic position.
“Canada has more to lose. I mean, it’s the Canadian exports of major commodities that would be hurt first,” Dawson says. “Texas is a large economy. It’s got a lot of absorptive capacity. It’s got a lot of options from other places. So it would be Canada that gets hit first.”
And just a few kilometers away in Dallas, Republicans showed little sign of treating the dispute with Canada as an electoral threat.
Most Republican officials Global News spoke with cast the trade fight as a test of American resolve rather than a political liability.
US Rep. Randy Weber of Texas acknowledged the stakes for trade-dependent parts of his state. His district has seven ports, he said, and trade and exports are “hugely big.” Tariff policy therefore had to be “reasonable” and “calculated.”
But he expected little political damage for Trump.
“I don’t think it will lose him a lot of popularity,” Weber said, adding that some voters could instead see the confrontation as proof Trump was willing to stand up to other countries.
Illinois Rep. Mike Bost similarly argued that Ottawa would “lose more in this tariff fight than we are,” warning that continued Canadian retaliation would be “tougher on you all in Canada.”
Others were more willing to accept the costs.
Patti Lyman, Republican National Committeewoman for Virginia, said the United States had spent too long giving other countries “a free ride.” If the escalation continued, she said, “let’s see in the end who needs whose market the most.”
Higher costs, she suggested, were a price worth paying.
“Everyone will have to take a bit of a haircut.”
Republican congressional candidate Jay Feely was more blunt: “Canada needs us way more than we need Canada.”
Other elected Republicans showed little appetite to discuss the Canada dispute at all. Global News contacted 25 Republican senators and members of Congress about the trade war. Just three offices responded; none answered questions.
And Republicans most exposed to the political risks of tariffs weren’t in attendance – many from trade-reliant northern states distancing themselves from both Trump and his agenda.
For others, such as the party faithful in Dallas, the issue was often filtered through something much broader than the price of aluminum or the details of Canadian retaliation: loyalty to Trump and a belief that the United States had been treated unfairly.
Ronny Dudek, from Fort Worth, wore a shirt marking the 25th anniversary of 9/11, which fell the following day. Dudek acknowledged that “tariffs hurt people,” but argued that unequal trade had already hurt Americans.
“Yes, we should be nice to our neighbours, but trade wars are trade wars,” he said. “We still love the Canadians. The Canadian people still love us.”
He and his group got free convention tickets through the GOP website the week before. “Trump doesn’t want anyone to miss out,” he said.
Others had only a loose grasp of the Canada dispute.
One convention-goer, dressed in Charlie Kirk-themed attire, said her overriding concern was a “Communist Socialist takeover” and acknowledged that she was unfamiliar with the trade war. Her friend then offered an unverified claim that Canada had been importing Chinese goods and reselling them to evade US. tariffs.
Monique Worthy was more blunt. The transgender former Texas congressional candidate said Canada had been taking advantage of the U.S. “for a long time,” blaming previous presidents for allowing the imbalance to persist.
Of Carney, she said: “You’re talking all this hot sh*t, but we’re the ones securing y’all. If there was no America, there’d be no Canada.” She added that Canada would “probably still be speaking German” without the US.
But that blind loyalty to Trump creates another vulnerability.
For much of the convention’s first day, the American Airlines Center was more than half empty. That changed when Trump arrived: plenty of seats remained, but the arena was suddenly far fuller — and louder.
It had been nicknamed “Trump-a-palooza” for a reason.
In his opening-night speech, Trump repeatedly returned to his own role in the midterm campaign.
“Pretend I’m on the ballot,” he told a cheering crowd.
In Trump’s telling, that makes November a referendum on him and his record — tariffs included.
Yet for all the disruption the trade fight was causing beyond the American Airlines Center, the dispute with Canada barely registered inside. Beyond a jibe about Lake Ontario and an insistence that Canada was “dying” to make a deal, Trump said little about the country even as he repeatedly praised tariffs.
One of his more memorable trade discussions had nothing to do with Canada at all.
Standing inside the Mavericks’ home arena, Trump criticized the team for trading NBA superstar Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, comparing it to Boston’s infamous sale of Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees more than a century ago.
“Maybe we could redo that trade,” Trump said, drawing cheers from the crowd.
“I redo deals all the time.”
With files from Jackson Proskow and Reggie Cecchini.
