One of the strongest El Ninos on record could bring a much warmer than normal winter, but the “Godzilla” warming event meteorologists are forecasting could affect parts of Canada in different ways for months.
An El Nino ocean warming event typically occurs every three to seven years and shifts what is normally seen in the Pacific Ocean.
Phillips says trade winds that typically push warm water towards places like Indonesia reverse and weaken. As a result, warm water is pushed towards the coast of North America.
What makes this year’s El Nino a record breaker is the temperature. Water surface temperature in the Pacific hit at least 0.5 C above average in El Nino years but this year, the temperature has hit 3.5 C above average.
“We’ve never seen the water as warm as it is right now in that part of the Pacific, of the tropical Pacific on the east side of the ocean,” said Phillips. “We’ve never seen an El Nino this strong and it’s still growing, it’s still strong.”
Now, Canadians may be wondering why something in the Pacific Ocean could affect people on the East Coast and the answer is the jet stream.
In non-El Nino years, the polar jet stream is settled over Canada and brings us colder weather.
Get breaking National news
Get breaking Canada news delivered to your inbox as it happens so you won’t miss a trending story.
But in El Nino, Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell said the subtropical jet stream moves north.
“It brings a lot of of Pacific air, a lot of mild temperatures, and that travels not just close to the source in B.C., but it’ll travel all the way around the planet, impact the weather in Europe, in Asia, everything is related in the weather world,” Farnell said.
Even though the system will mean warmer temperatures for the most part, it will still vary from coast to coast.
North America is still further away from where El Nino forms in the Pacific, so while places like Peru or Ecuador could see more rain, that likely won’t be the case here.
B.C., Alberta and other parts of the Prairies are likely to see fewer storms and milder temperatures, but Farnell says it could also be drier which could hurt both ski season and next year’s wildfire season.
East of Manitoba, places like Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes will see above seasonal conditions amounting to less snow.
“That’s kind of a misnomer is people think winter’s cancelled, that’s not the case,” Farnell said. “We’re still going to have those bouts of extreme cold, they may not last as long. The snow that does fall, it could be heavy, but it also doesn’t last as well.”
Snow will also likely melt faster because of the up and down temperatures.
That fast melt could impact people who use snow a lot like ski hills and other winter recreation users, Phillips said.
“You’re going to have warm temperatures come, and when you get that big snowpack and you’ve got a good snow base, all of a sudden the mild air comes or the rain comes and not more snow,” Phillips said.
He added though it began earlier this year, it likely won’t peak for a few more weeks likely in early December.
Even after it peaks, Farnell said its effects are typically delayed.
“So I think over the next six months to a year is when we’re really going to see the extremes,” he said. “It is just going to bring the temperature of the planet up another step and that is something that with climate change combined is going to have some definitely long-lasting impacts.
“With climate change you end with more extremes, so the combo of the two I would say I would bet that they’re going to be big storms, ice storms, droughts, fires, floods, all of that in the months ahead.”
© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
