Canadian coffee drinkers have been paying significantly more over the past year compared to previous years, as recent data shows skyrocketing food inflation — particularly for that cup of joe.
Coffee prices increased by an average of 31 per cent in December 2025 compared to a year prior, according to Statistics Canada data last week. That compares to a five per cent increase for all food products purchased in stores, and a 2.4 per cent increase for all goods and services in the same period.
At the retail level, the price of roasted or ground coffee in Canada was an average of $7.12 for 340 grams in December 2024, while in December 2025 it was $9.35.
Still, there is no indication Canadians are drinking significantly less coffee as a result of these price increases.
“We just like our morning kick, and perhaps it’s darker winters and shorter days or the ubiquitousness of Tim Hortons — we have become a significant coffee culture,” says food economist Mike von Massow at the University of Guelph.
“Canada is, and has been for some time, sort of a coffee-addicted nation.”
A wide range of factors can contribute to the prices consumers pay in stores and at fast-food retailers, restaurants, bars and coffee shops.
Coffee beans are particularly sensitive to changes in weather, which is becoming more of an issue as climate change creates more frequent extreme and unpredictable conditions like droughts as the earth’s temperature increases.
“Coffee is really the canary in the coal mine for climate change. While many crops are much more affected by the higher degree of variability that we’re getting with climate change, the small temperature increases are having a significant impact on coffee,” says von Massow.
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“Yields are going down, disease problems are happening, and so we’re going to have to adjust where we’re producing coffee. So coffee production is going down, demand is not changing. And so basic ‘economics 101,’ supply goes down — price goes up.“
One way climate change can lead to higher coffee prices is through extended periods of drought, which means there may be lower crop yields. This was the case in some regions over the past year, which is one of the main reasons why coffee prices are elevated right now and may stay high for several more months.
More ideal conditions are being reported in places like Brazil, both now and in the coming months, which means when it comes time to harvest again, there may be higher crop yields, which could help stabilize prices.
“The good news is that there’s many places in the world that produce coffee. So as a result, if the price gets high, more production will come forward. And indeed, what we’re seeing right now is a function of weather — maybe climate change,” says Barry Prentice, director of the Transport Institute at the University of Manitoba.
“The Brazilian market has been hit hard by a drought. They’re now getting rains. And so the coffee production looks like it’s coming back. So this may be a two-year anomaly, and then we’ll get back to our more normal pricing.”
Tariffs also play a role in how coffee prices change.
After U.S. President Donald Trump started a trade war by imposing tariffs on virtually all countries, some consumers saw prices for goods and services increase, including for coffee.
In November 2025, Trump removed some tariffs, including for coffee products, from nations which produce the beans.
Canada’s reciprocal tariffs on U.S. products were also removed last year and the current terms of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) mean most imported products, including coffee, are free from U.S. tariffs.
Although those tariffs have mostly been removed, some of the spike in coffee prices could be because those coffee products which were hit by tariffs may still be on the shelves of stores and warehouses, and even in the grinders and brewing machines of local coffee shops and restaurants.
“In 2025, we saw an additional factor, and that was when Canada put retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., which included coffee, and you might say, ‘Well, coffee isn’t produced in the U.S., why is that an issue?’ Some of our smaller roasters are buying coffee from brokers in the U.S.,” says von Massow.
“We’re burning through some of that inventory of product that came in under the tariffs and to those brokers, and now we’re hoping to see some relief from the tariff portion of those price increases.”
The question for now is whether coffee producers will be able to adapt, including to the uncertain environment and climate change that could cause more challenges in future years.
“I expect that we will see some resilience-building activities around coffee and climate change. If it’s susceptible to small changes in temperature, we might see coffee production move up the mountain a little bit or move to areas that were previously too cool for coffee but now are reaching the right temperature. But that takes time,” says von Massow.
It’s not just coffee, either. Climate change is forcing almost every arm of the food supply chain to adapt in order to continue to meet the demand of consumers.
“We’re starting to see the impacts of climate change on the food system, and coffee is one example. It’s a very sensitive plant in terms of its conditions that it doesn’t just grow everywhere. You have to the right conditions,” says Prentice.
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