Prime Minister Mark Carney’s request for a review of the F-35 fighter jet contract — and opposition leaders’ calls to cancel the contract altogether — reflects the reality of souring relations and lost confidence in the U.S., some experts say, although others are worried about national security implications.
Carney has asked Defence Minister Bill Blair to look into whether the deal with Lockheed Martin and the U.S. government, which would see 88 new planes purchased at a cost of roughly US$85 million each, is in the best interests of Canada.
The review comes amid a growing trade war and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada, which has sparked increasing retaliation from Canadian officials. There are also some concerns about having a Canadian fleet made up of U.S.-made planes while Trump upends decades-old alliances, including NATO.
“It’s a reaction that’s somewhat understandable given the amount of coercive behaviour coming out of the U.S. administration right now,” said David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
He said he’s seen indications of other U.S. allies “asking similar questions” and even starting to move away from sourcing military equipment from the U.S.
But defence policy experts say putting those concerns and Canadian patriotism ahead of collective defence will be unnecessarily harmful to Canada’s security interests, particularly as it faces pressure to shore up and modernize the military.
“Grow up,” said Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
“This is cutting off our nose to spite our face.”
The new fleet is set to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) aging CF-18s, with the first four of the 88 planes expected to be delivered in 2026 and the final 18 in 2032.
Blair’s spokesperson told Global News the F-35 contract has not been cancelled, and Canada has legally committed to buying the first 16 aircraft.
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“We need to do our homework given the changing environment, and make sure that the contract in its current form is in the best interests of Canadians and the Canadian Armed Forces,” Laurent de Casanove said.
Carney told reporters in London on Monday the deal allows Canada to look at “options on subsequent aircrafts” after those initial 16 are delivered, including “the possibility of having substantial production of alternative aircraft in Canada as opposed to” spending more money in the U.S.
He also cited the “geopolitical environment” and “the need for value for money” as factors.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in a defence policy announcement in Iqaluit on Sunday, said an NDP government would cancel the F-35 contract and build new fighter jets domestically.
At issue is the F-35’s source code, which is essentially the software key that keeps the fighter jet operational. The Pentagon has long withheld the source code from partner countries, meaning it controls distribution of updates to the software.
The concern is that the U.S. could limit a Canadian fleet’s capabilities at any moment — a worry that’s become acute for some political and defence analysts given the rhetoric out of the Trump administration.
“Given the way this U.S. administration has acted, there’s been some questions about whether or not Canada or other allies could reliably expect that the U.S. government will keep providing access and updates to the software, given some of the ways it’s been acting about things like aid to Ukraine,” Perry said.
A Lockheed Martin spokesperson told Global News the company will “deliver all system infrastructure and data required for all F-35 customers to sustain the aircraft,” per its government contracts. The Pentagon did not comment.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet told the Canadian Press on Monday that Ottawa should demand the U.S. provide the source code and full operational independence of F-35s delivered to Canada, in exchange for continuing the contract.
In a statement, Conservative defence critic James Bezan accused the Liberals of playing politics with the process to replace the CF-18s, saying the Royal Canadian Air Force “should have had new fighter jets by now.”
However, if the U.S. “continues to demonstrate that it is an unreliable partner and ally, then Canada will need to look for other options when it comes to defence purchases for the Canadian Armed Forces,” Bezan added.
Shimooka said it would “make no sense” for the Trump administration or any future U.S. government to compromise a Canadian F-35 fleet given the commitment to NORAD and overall North American defence, particularly in the Arctic.
Finding a domestic alternative to the F-35 that would properly integrate with U.S. and allied defence networks would take years, he added, with the first aircraft not arriving until well after Trump leaves office in 2029.
“It shows a lack of understanding of how modern militaries operate,” Shimooka said. “We don’t have a large military. And so we have to integrate heavily into our allies’ systems in order to be effective.”
Shimooka said he’s heard from RCAF members who are frustrated about the possibility of further delays for what Perry calls a “long and tortuous path” toward a new fighter jet fleet.
In 2010, the Conservative government first committed to buying 65 F-35s without competition, but concerns about the cost and capabilities forced it to reconsider.
Then in 2015, the Liberals promised to instead launch an open competition to replace the CF-18s and not to buy the F-35s.
They rejected a plan to buy 18 Super Hornets after Boeing launched a trade dispute with Montreal aerospace firm Bombardier, launching an open bidding process for the new fleet in July 2019.
As a result of that process, Ottawa announced a deal with Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon for the F-35s in 2023. The deal allows Canada to get the jets at U.S. procurement costs and at a faster rate than it would solely through private contractors.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer has said the total cost to buy, fly and maintain the new F-35 fleet would be an estimated $73.9 billion. A 2023 report estimated the acquisition phase would cost $19.8 billion, including $10.7 billion for 88 planes, $2.1 billion for weapons and ammunition and $5.9 billion for elements like design and depot costs, infrastructure and training.
The new review comes as Canada faces increasing pressure from the Trump administration to boost its defence spending and meet its NATO commitments, which Carney has vowed to do by 2030.
That pressure has also come from both Republicans and Democrats in Congress, who Shimooka warned could turn on Canada “pretty quickly” if Ottawa starts openly questioning U.S. defence contracts.
“(U.S. lawmakers) could start knocking on doors in Canada and say, ‘You want my help with this trade dispute? You don’t play this game, you don’t play around with NORAD stuff,’” he said.
“For some of these guys, security stuff is just too important.”
—with files from the Canadian Press
