Canada’s fertilizer industry says U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of “very severe” tariffs will “jeopardize” North American agricultural supply chains if they’re imposed, warning the U.S. doesn’t have enough potash reserves to replace Canadian imports.
Trump said Monday while announcing billions in government aid for American farmers hurting from higher prices — including on fertilizer — that he may tariff Canadian fertilizer “if we have to” in order to bolster domestic production.
In a statement, Fertilizer Canada said increasing fertilizer production “cannot happen overnight and can take 10 to 15 years to increase.”
“Imposing tariffs jeopardizes the deeply integrated, open trading relationship that is vital to North American agricultural producers,” the statement said.
“To protect the competitiveness of North American farmers, access to a reliable supply of tariff-free fertilizer is essential.”
U.S. farmers rely on Canadian potash fertilizer from Saskatchewan in order to add potassium to their soils. Canada has the largest potash reserves in the world, with more than 1.1 billion tons — accounting for over one-third of the world’s reserves — compared to 220 million tons in the U.S., according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The U.S. “does not have sufficient reserves to meet domestic demand,” Fertilizer Canada said, noting American farmers used 5.3 million tons of potash in 2023 while the country produced about 400,000 tons. Canada produced an estimated 21.9 million tons of potash in 2023.
The U.S. Geological Survey said 79 per cent of potash imports came from Canada between 2020 and 2023.
The industry group also noted that Canadian farmers are similarly reliant on American phosphate for their fertilizer, with 95 per cent of Canadian phosphate supply coming from the U.S.
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“Fertilizer plays a vital role in food security,” it said. “Farmers on both sides of the border rely on North American-produced fertilizer to grow strong, healthy, high-yielding crops that feed us all.”
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe on Tuesday urged Canadians to “take a breath.”
“You need to take the president very seriously, but maybe don’t take him literally on everything that he says,” he told reporters.
“The logical path forward is for us to keep a calm head in what is a very erratic conversation at times, and to remember what it is we’re trying to achieve as Canadians and as a country of Canada: one is to defend our economy against these types of threats, two is to find our way to a broader free, fair and open trade deal — not only with the U.S. but with other countries around the world as well.”
Moe added there’s “no room to increase the costs on American farmers by tariffing that product,” and that cutting off Canadian imports would force the U.S. toward other markets like Russia to fill the gap.
If that were to happen, the premier said he had faith that Saskatchewan potash producers and exporters would be able to find other global markets to backfill lost U.S. purchases.
Currently, Canadian fertilizer exports to the U.S. that exceed limits under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on free trade (CUSMA) are subject to a 10 per cent tariff — lower than the blanket 25 per cent tariff on most other non-CUSMA exports.
Trump lowered the tariff on fertilizer, as well as Canadian energy products, after pushback from U.S. agriculture groups and Republican lawmakers in farming states like Iowa.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday that her department and others were working on a plan to reshore fertilizer production to the U.S., while also directing fertilizer manufacturers and other industrial players to lower their prices.
“The president has been very unequivocal in saying we have to figure out why all these input costs are skyrocketing,” Rollins said.
Trump has long argued his tariffs aren’t the cause of rising prices, despite most economists agreeing that companies forced to pay the tariffs on foreign imports are passing the added cost onto consumers.
The U.S. Supreme Court is currently weighing a case centred on Trump’s ability to impose tariffs unilaterally under emergency powers, including the blanket, non-CUSMA tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
“Because of Tariffs, easily and quickly applied, our National Security has been greatly enhanced, and we have become the financially strongest Country, by far, anywhere in the World,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post late Monday night.
“Only dark and sinister forces would want to see that end!!!”
The Trump administration has said it is examining the higher costs for agricultural products and machinery. Soybean farmers expect to see their third consecutive year of losses in 2025, according to the American Soybean Association.
Canada’s agricultural industry is already facing pressure thanks to steep tariffs on canola, pork and seafood from China. Diplomatic efforts to get those tariffs reduced have so far not yielded results.
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