Novo Nordisk says the expiration of its patents for some semaglutide GLP-1 drug treatments in markets like Canada will result in more generics entering the marketplace and impact the company’s sales.
The Denmark-based pharmaceutical company behind brand names like Wegovy and Ozempic said in an earnings report on Wednesday that it expects somewhat weaker demand in 2026, citing “intensifying competition” as its grip on the Canadian market starts to weaken as part of its “Semaglutide Loss of Exclusivity” or “Sema LOE.”
This comes after Health Canada last month approved several generic treatment options for reducing risks from diabetes and helping to manage weight.
“In international operations, the outlook is based on current growth trends, including continued volume penetration from GLP-1 treatments and market expansion, mainly within obesity, as well as intensifying competition and negative impacts from the patent expiry of semaglutide in certain markets,” chief financial officer Karsten Munk Knudsen at Novo Nordisk said on the earnings call with investors and analysts Wednesday.
“Sema LOE in international markets will impact group sales by low single digits. Canada is the biggest contributor,” Knudsen said.
“There could be both an upside and a downside to our guidance, depending on the pace of approval of generics in Canada.”
According to Canada’s Drug Agency, Wegovy could cost Canadians about $5,000 per year based on the recommended maintenance dose for weight management of 2.4 milligrams weekly.
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The Canadian patents for these Novo Nordisk semaglutide treatments in Canada expired last month, which paved the way for other producers to create similar products without the brand name.
Near the end of last year, Health Canada said it had received nine submissions seeking approval to make semaglutide treatments similar to Ozempic and Wegovy.
“Health Canada understands that there is considerable interest in lowering costs associated with this highly prescribed drug by introducing generic versions,” spokesperson Mark Johnson said in an email to The Canadian Press in January.
Some of those submissions were from companies including Sandoz Canada, Apotex, Teva Canada, Taro Pharmaceuticals and Aspen Pharmacare Canada.
Novo Nordisk says it’s confident its semaglutide pill treatments will help offset any drop in sales from injections.
“We have seen encouraging early uptake of the Wegovy pill. Our compiled data shows that total prescriptions are around 50,000 for the week ending January 23rd, with around 45,000 of these prescriptions coming through self-pay. The uptake is over twice that of any prior anti-obesity drug launches in the United States,” Novo Nordisk executive vice-president Dave Moore said during the call.
“Though it is still early in the launch, most prescriptions appear to be for patients new to these medications, suggesting the market is expanding.”
Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 pill, Rybelsus, was approved by Health Canada last month and is currently the only semaglutide in pill form available in Canada. It is designed to help reduce the risk of heart disease and Type 2 diabetes.
Eli Lilly is also developing a GLP-1 pill, but it is not yet approved for use in the U.S. or in Canada.
Eli Lilly, which makes weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro, provided an outlook for 2026 expecting revenue to increase by about 25 per cent compared with last year.
That outshone the outlook provided by Novo Nordisk, which said it expects to see sales fall between five and 13 per cent this year compared with 2025, citing the “loss of exclusivity for the semaglutide molecule.”
— with a file from The Canadian Press
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