Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has scheduled a last-minute “whistle stop” rally in his rural Ottawa riding amidst reports that he’s in danger of losing his seat.
On Sunday night, Poilievre will meet with constituents in the rural Ottawa riding of Carleton — a seat he’s held since being first elected in 2004 at age 25 — on the eve of the federal election.
Both the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail — citing unnamed federal and Ontario conservative sources — reported Thursday Poilievre could be in danger of losing his own seat.
Citing an unnamed source in the Conservative campaign, the Star reported Thursday Poilievre appears to be “in trouble” in his own riding. Two other Conservative sources, not connected to the campaign, told the newspaper, “Poilievre’s team has reached out to party supporters looking for volunteers to help because of fears that the leader’s victory may not be assured.”
“No riding is ever taken for granted but we are confident Pierre Poilievre will be returned to Parliament to represent Carleton,” said Simon Jefferies, a spokesperson for the Conservative campaign, on Friday.
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“Mr. Poilievre is ending the campaign in Carleton to thank his local volunteers who have been working hard on his behalf while he has campaigned across the country.”
Elections Canada revealed this week that Poilievre’s Carleton riding had the highest number of ballots cast during the four days of advanced polls over the Easter long weekend with 43,394. Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s chosen riding of Nepean came fifth, with 32,689 votes.
The Conservatives head into the final weekend of the campaign still trailing Carney’s Liberals, despite having a commanding lead in national polls at the beginning of the year.
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, coupled with threats from U.S. President Donald Trump about annexing Canada and making it the “51st state,” dramatically changed the game – and Conservative fortunes along with it.
According to poll aggregator 338canada.com, the Liberals are currently projected to win 186 seats — just north of the 172 needed to form a majority government — followed by 124 for Poilievre’s Conservatives and 24 for the Bloc Québécois. The New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are projected to win just eight seats.
The Liberals had designs on Poilievre’s seat in the 2015 election that saw Trudeau come to power, with Liberal candidate Chris Rogers coming within three percentage points of a victory. The riding boundaries have since been redrawn, making it more of a rural riding that would typically favour the incumbent Conservative leader.
Poilievre spent the final days of the 36-day campaign in Nova Scotia, where Conservative fortunes are flagging, Saskatchewan and Alberta, where the party should win the lion’s share of seats decisively, and B.C. — an important battleground and three-way race between his party, the Liberals and New Democrats.
Poilievre is also scheduled to hold a rally in Oakville, Ont., on Sunday.
A Conservative campaign source, speaking on the condition they not be named, said it’s normal for party leaders to conclude their campaigns in their home ridings.
“Leaders have to go back to their ridings to vote,” the campaign official said.
“Poilievre will also be voting in Carleton on Monday.”
The official pointed to a 2021 rally Trudeau held in Montreal on the eve of that election.
Election polls will be open for 12 hours across the country on Monday for Canadians to make their final decision.
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