As Alberta flirts with the possibility of a referendum on separation, Quebec sovereigntists are watching with interest — and a healthy dose of skepticism.
Some are hoping a wave of separatist sentiment in Alberta will put wind in the sails of Quebec’s own independence movement, which took a blow in the recent federal election when the Liberals made big gains in the province at the expense of the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois.
But others see Alberta’s brand of separatism, grown out of frustration with federal Liberal policies, as so fundamentally different from Quebec sovereignty that it’s hard not to be dismissive.
“In Quebec, we have a nation, a language, a culture, a distinct history,” said Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the Société St-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, a prominent Quebec nationalist group.
“They want an oil-based future. We have no common goals. We’re not alike.”
Last week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith tabled legislation that would lower the bar for a citizen petition to trigger a referendum. Though she insists she does not support Alberta separating from Canada, she said this week she will hold a referendum on separation next year if a petition meets the threshold, and that she will respect the outcome.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the sovereigntist Parti Québécois, has applauded Smith for defending Alberta’s interests. Earlier this week, he drew a parallel between the two provinces, saying they both want self-determination in the face of “abuses of power” by the federal government.
He’s not alone in sensing an opportunity. Frédéric Lapointe, president of the Mouvement national des Québécoises et Québécois, said the debate in Alberta could help “normalize” the idea of separation.
“The fact that there are discussions outside of Quebec, elsewhere in Canada, it could be a form of wake-up call,” he said. “And then people will start to think about it more seriously.”
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He also pointed out that Quebec’s sovereigntist movement has traditionally been a left-wing project. He hopes a push for independence led by conservatives in Alberta might broaden its appeal in Quebec.
The PQ has launched two referendums on Quebec sovereignty — in 1980 and 1995 — and lost both. St-Pierre Plamondon, whose party is leading in the polls, promises to hold a third by 2030 if the PQ forms government in next year’s provincial election.
In recent years, support for sovereignty in Quebec has hovered around 35 per cent, though U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation pushed the issue to the back burner in last month’s federal election. A poll this week from the Angus Reid Institute pegged support for separation in Alberta at 36 per cent.
Still, Alepin questioned whether Albertans who say they support independence really want to leave Canada, or whether they simply plan to use the threat as leverage. Smith has said she wants to compel the federal government to end policies that have long irritated her province, including by demanding guaranteed oil and gas pipeline access to tidewater.
“Alberta wants a bigger place in Canada,” Alepin said. “We want to get out.”
First Nations in Alberta, meanwhile, have denounced the recent talk of a referendum, saying the province has no authority to supersede treaties signed with the federal government. Their opposition means Alberta should think twice before going down this path, said Ghislain Picard, former Quebec regional chief of the Assembly of First Nations. He pointed out that Quebec’s Cree and Inuit held referenda of their own in 1995, and voted overwhelmingly against separation.
Louise Harel, a former PQ interim leader, said a secessionist movement in Alberta could heighten sovereigntist sentiment in Quebec, but not because of any common cause between the two provinces. If Prime Minister Mark Carney offered Alberta an olive branch by supporting a new oil pipeline through Quebec, she said, “Quebec could trigger a referendum and win it in protest.”
Harel said she couldn’t support an independence movement in Alberta because she believes its primary goal would be to protect the oil and gas sector and undo environmental protections.
The idea that separatists in Alberta and Quebec are fighting irreconcilably different battles was summed up most succinctly this week by Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.
“The first idea is to define oneself as a nation,” he told reporters when asked if he had tips for his western confrères. “Therefore it requires a culture of their own. And I am not certain that oil and gas qualify to define a culture.”
It was a flippant remark, but Michael Wagner, an advocate for Alberta independence, said it’s mostly true. He agrees that Alberta isn’t a distinct nation, unlike Quebec, and that its separatist movement is more fragile as a result.
“Most Albertans, even those that support separation, don’t really want it,” he said. He recalled speaking at a separatist meeting three years ago that opened with attendees singing the national anthem. “I don’t think they would do that in Quebec,” he said.
Wagner said Carney has “a real opportunity” to make nice with Alberta by repealing some of the Liberal government’s climate policies. He said that would be his first choice, even though it would undermine the independence movement.
Despite their differences, Wagner said Alberta separatists should take inspiration from Quebec in at least one respect. “The one thing that the Quebec separatist movement had that Alberta still has never had is a strong leader like (PQ founder and former premier) René Lévesque,” he said. “If only someone like that would come forward, it would make a big difference for us here.”
Though there are few signs of an alliance forming between separatists in Alberta and Quebec, there have been occasional exchanges. In 2020, former Bloc MP and PQ member of the legislature Daniel Turp attended a Calgary conference on Albertan autonomy to give a presentation on Quebec’s 1995 secession plan.
Five years later, Turp, an emeritus professor in Université de Montréal’s law faculty, is among those who think a referendum in Alberta could have a “rather positive impact” in Quebec.
“I think it’s probably going to be favourable when we realize that another province wants to choose the path of independence,” he said. “I think it could lead people who have always hesitated to want to vote yes.”
