As the year comes to an end, the buzz around the possibility of an early Ontario election has grown louder, with supporters of the theory pointing to the provincial government’s push to fast-track several bills and Premier Ford’s $200 rebate cheques as signs of a looming vote.
Although the province’s next fixed election date isn’t until June 2026, Ford has consistently evaded questions about whether or not he will call an early election.
Another sign that an election is coming, some say, is Ford’s year-end deadline for Progressive Conservative caucus members to decide if they want to run for re-election.
“You always have to be prepared,” Ford said at an unrelated press conference in September when asked about the nomination process, which typically takes place six months before an election.
“We aren’t too far from any election, no matter if it’s next year or the following year, and we have to know where we’re moving and going and making sure we have good candidates.”
Many have also pointed to the $200 rebate cheques that will be sent to all eligible Ontario taxpayers in early 2025. The provincial government announced the payments in October, noting that the cheques aim to support families facing high interest rates and the federal carbon tax.
The rebate is expected to provide $3 billion in support for approximately 12.5 million adults and 2.5 million children.
As the prospect of an early election gains momentum, some of Ontario’s political parties have started to enter prep mode, including rolling out platform announcements and crafting ad campaigns.
“I’m hearing what everybody else is, that there are definitely plans afoot to consider calling the election early,” said Liberal campaign co-chair Genevieve Tomney. “So from my perch, the most important thing that I can do is work with my team to be ready.”
Others aren’t so sure that an early election will be called. “I think the premier has a lot of things he wants to get done, and he’s kind of well on his way to doing those things, especially around infrastructure building — hospitals, long-term care, schools, the Ontario Line, two-way all-day GO, all those things,” said Laryssa Waler, Ford’s former director of communications.
“I think he’s trying to weigh, would those things happen faster and better if you went to an election now and got a bigger mandate or…is it better to just keep on chugging along?”
Some, including NDP Leader Marit Stiles, believe Ford may be considering calling an early election for more selfish reasons, citing his possible concerns over the RCMP investigation into the removal of Greenbelt land for development. Ford ultimately reversed this decision, and maintains that nothing criminal took place.
Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP appears to be digging its heels in for an election and has announced the nomination of two candidates in the past week alone.
On Dec. 6, Wayne Gates was nominated to be the Ontario NDP candidate in Niagara Falls for the next provincial election. Just three days later, Sandy Shaw was nominated as the party’s candidate in Hamilton West – Ancaster – Dundas.
