The Trump administration’s implicit endorsement of “patriotic” European political parties has renewed concerns about American meddling in Canadian political movements and causes.
Washington’s updated National Security Strategy, released late last week, says little directly about economic or security ties with Canada. But it raised eyebrows among Canadian national security watchers with its full-throated support for nationalist parties in Europe and its vision for the future of the Western hemisphere.
The document sets out a desire to “enlist” countries in the Western hemisphere — presumably including Canada — to carry out U.S. policy goals in the region, including curbing “destabilizing” migration, “neutralizing” drug cartels and reversing globalization by “near-shoring” manufacturing operations.
“It’s not clear to me if they consider Canada part of European ‘civilization’ … or, alternatively, do they see us as part of the Western hemisphere which they’re dominating anyways,” said Stephanie Carvin, a Carleton University international relations professor and former intelligence analyst.
American influence in Canadian politics is nothing new. But Trump’s National Security Strategy suggests Washington would directly support political parties in North America that align with America’s foreign policy objectives.
“We will reward and encourage the region’s governments, political parties, and movements broadly aligned with our principles and strategy,” the document states.
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Overt support for a Canadian political party from Trump or the Republicans would almost certainly have an adverse effect on that party’s electoral prospects, given Canadian voters’ deep antipathy towards the American president.
That hasn’t stopped some within the administration from weighing in on Canadian policy issues. For instance, Vice President J.D. Vance recently suggested on social media that Canadian living standards are “stagnating” because of “foreign-born” residents.
But there are lots of ways American political power — and money — can influence Canadian politics outside of a supportive, all-caps social media post from the president.
“I don’t think it has to be the endorsement of a political party,” Carvin said.
“There’s a lot of movements in Canada that are very pro-MAGA, or have MAGA values that they can align themselves with. And those movements can direct voters to support certain things or protest other things and can generate political force.”
In stark language, the document also warns of a perceived “civilizational erasure” in Europe — taking aim at the European Union, the continent’s migration policies and the loss of “national identities.” From Washington’s viewpoint, Europe’s current trajectory would make the continent “unrecognizable” in two decades.
The strategy’s focus on migration and national birthrates make clear the Trump administration’s preference for Europe’s far-right and nationalist movements over who it dismisses as “European officials.”
“The benefit for us is (the strategy) lays out quite clearly the thinking of at least some in the administration,” said Roland Paris, the director of the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs and a foreign policy adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
“This wasn’t just the comments that somebody made at three in the morning on Truth Social. This was a reflected document.”
For Paris, Trump’s strategy is particularly concerning when it comes to the Arctic — a region that the climate crisis has turned into a new arena for military, intelligence and commercial interests as shipping lanes open and new resources become more accessible.
“Donald Trump might wake up one day and decide he wants to make the Northwest Passage an issue. And so the clock is ticking on that,” Paris said.
“If he believes that Canada is not doing enough to secure our own north, then all bets are off.”
The broader foreign policy point, Paris said, is that the Trump administration is viewing the world in terms of spheres of influence for major powers — which limits Canada’s “room to maneuver” on international affairs.
That will require “even more sophistication in our diplomacy in order to maintain and strengthen links with partners beyond North America.”
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