A month into Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president, it has become clear around the world that America’s approach to foreign policy is undergoing a significant change.
Since the end of the Second World War, the United States’ alliance with the West has held steady, but as that evolves, those who study history say the world order we have known for 80 years could be set for a seismic shift.
“Clearly there is deep concern around the world about this being a retreat from leadership (by the United States) to a more transactional, unilateralist approach to international relations,” said John Blaxland, a professor of International Security at the Australian National University.
“This is such uncharted territory; none of us have actually lived through anything like this before.”
Many European leaders were stunned earlier this month when in a blistering speech at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance told the audience “there is a new sheriff in town under Donald Trump’s leadership” and warned governments that internal threats to democracy, like election cancellations and censorship, are greater threats to their countries than external antagonists like China and Russia.
“The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor,” Vance said, speaking at the Munich Security Conference.
“What I worry about is the threat from within — the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.”
Days later, Trump appeared to reverse course on the country’s support for Ukraine, adopting hostile rhetoric reminiscent of the misinformation frequently shared by Russian President Vladimir Putin
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During a press conference earlier, when asked why Ukraine wasn’t included in the U.S.-Russia talks, Trump accused Ukraine not just of avoiding a negotiated end to the war but also of starting it.
“Today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited. ‘Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it three years (ago). You should have never started it,” he said.
Historian Andrew Gawthorpe says the last few weeks have been a “tremendously significant moment” with serious implications for the rest of the world.
“For the first time there is a rift in the Western Alliance,” said the Leiden University professor in an interview with Global News from his home in Leiden, Netherlands.
“It certainly seems like Trump’s dream is to join with Vladimir Putin in redrawing the security order in Europe, redrawing the international order in Europe.”
Gawthorpe says you’d have to go back to the late 1940s to find a comparably significant historical time.
“It is after World War Two that the United States accepted that it was going to play a prominent role in upholding this world order and upholding security in Europe as well. That’s when the U.S. sent troops permanently to Europe for the first time.” he said.
“Trump wants to undo this order. He believes that it has been decades and decades of the rest of the world taking advantage of the United States.”
What this will mean for the international community has become the sudden focus of scholars and governments around the globe.
“I think everyone is looking for a plan B right now,” said Blaxland.
“Everyone’s trying to think, ‘OK, now what?’”
Donald Heflin, a Senior Fellow at Tufts University and a former U.S. diplomat, believes institutions like the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the NATO alliance are strong enough to survive the next four years.
“(The U.S) is a very important player. Are we indispensable or could these alliances pick up and get the work done? I think the latter. I think they will survive,” Heflin said.
“Though there could be some bad things that happen over the next three or four years and it would be great if these institutions were stronger during that time to deal with them.”
Heflin believes protecting these institutions and alliances is in the best interest in the United States as well.
“It’s been a much more peaceful, much more stable world and it’s due to the hard work of all member countries in those institutions.”
Both Blaxland and Gawthorpe say a weakened Western alliance would be seen as an opportunity for China to expand its sphere of influence around the world.
“This is a huge opening for China,” said Blaxland. “This is an opportunity for China to say, ‘See, America, what is it? What do they hold over us? Principles? Soft power? Moral authority? International rules?’ These have all been thrown up in the air.”
“We’re going to be living in a world with three big superpowers in the United States, Russia and China,” said Gawthorpe.
“We’re going to see more and more that small countries don’t have their voices listened to and that they are bent to the will of these superpowers.”
Countries like Canada, Gawthorpe suspects, will have few cards to play.
“The rules and international laws and institutions that gave them a voice and gave them influence in global affairs are seemingly wilting away, replaced by this rule of strongmen,” Gawthorpe said.
“I think that we’re heading to a world of much greater instability and unpredictability. (To say) we’re heading towards war is too pessimistic but we can say that the situation globally is becoming much more contentious.”
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