Bruised but not yet broken, Alberta’s separatist movement is turning its attention toe Premier Danielle Smith and the governing United Conservative Party.
As results continued to trickle in early Tuesday morning, the separatists’ defeat proved even more decisive than months of public polling predicted — with 75.7 per cent of Albertans voting to remain in Canada, and just 24.3 per cent voting to trigger an independence referendum.
It was a staggering blow to the separatist movement, and a massive win for the volunteers and politicians who campaigned for months against independence. The impact of the vote was less clear for Smith — who despite officially supporting the remain side, was seen as being sympathetic to the separatist cause and triggered the vote in the first place.
It doesn’t appear that Smith will get her wish that Albertans will simply accept the results of the referendum and move on.
Instead, Smith and the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) will have to contend with a motivated and more organized separatist movement turning their efforts to oust the premier and take control of the party.
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Jeffrey Rath, one of the central figures in the separatist movement who had a hand in former premier Jason Kenney’s ouster, told Global News he will be pushing for a special general meeting of the party to remove Smith.
Rath said Alberta independence will never be realized as long as Smith, who he called an “avowed federalist,” remains leader.
“Moving forward from here, our hundreds of thousands of members and volunteers are going to be committed to taking back ownership of the (UCP),” Rath said.
“It’s time to have a serious discussion as to whether or not a supermajority of the United Conservative Party of Alberta want to continue to be led by a Federalist (in Smith) who’s in bed with Naheed Nensi, Mark Carney, Rachel Notley and the rest of the socialists and globalists that have literally been ruining this province and ruining this country.”
Polling released on the eve of the referendum suggested that the separatists’ biggest pool of support was found within the UCP ranks. Abacus Data’s findings suggest 52 per cent of UCP supporters would vote for a referendum, with just 44 per cent voting to remain
“By comparison, 93 per cent of NDP supporters would vote remain,” David Coletto, Abacus’ CEO, wrote in an analysis of the numbers.
“Indeed, 77 per cent of everyone who would vote (for a referendum) currently supports the UCP. The referendum continues to divide the governing party’s own coalition.”
The polling revealed UCP supporters are less likely than other partisans to feel a connection to Canada. Just 39 per cent of the party’s supporters expressed a strong attachment to the country, while 68 per cent of UCP voters feel a strong attachment to Alberta. More NDP voters (84 per cent) said they felt a strong attachment to Canada, while 42 per cent said the same about attachment to their province.
Another risk for Smith and the UCP is the political blowback for forcing Albertans to vote on independence in the first place.
While a strong current within their own party, Tuesday’s results clearly show that most Albertans do not have separatist sympathies. In forcing the issue, Smith risked wearing the separatist cause in voters eyes — while failing to satisfy the die-hard independence movement within her own party.
Polling aggregator 338Canada’s numbers suggest a tightening of the provincial horse race polls, with Naheed Nenshi’s NDP pulling within the margin of error with Smith’s governing party. That tightening of the provincial political race roughly coincided with Smith’s decision to put separation on the ballot.
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