In one week, the United States, Mexico and Canada will meet to review the three nations’ trade agreement, also known as CUSMA.
The meeting will determine whether the three countries want to either formally extend the agreement for 16 years or continue under annual reviews.
When asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney’s CUSMA trade talks, B.C. Premier David Eby said he’s more of a spectator.
“It’s hard to know from the outside of the negotiating table,” he said.
July 1 marks six years since the Canada, U.S., and Mexico trade deal came into effect. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump has remarked that the United States is better off without CUSMA and he would actually like to see it terminated.
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“The U.S. has decided that no, this is going to be more than that, it’s going to be some wholesale renegotiation and if you don’t agree to the terms of this renegotiation, we might exit this altogether,” William Pellerin, a McMillan LLP international trade lawyer, said.
The U.S. remains by far B.C.’s top trading partner, and sectoral tariffs are hurting industries such as forestry and there is no real relief in sight.
“What I expect for the next six months is that it’s going to continue to be a bumpy ride with the U.S.,” Laura Jones with the Business Council of B.C. said.
“I think that’s the safest prediction.”
A report from the U.S.-based Tax Foundation finds free trade with Canada and Mexico was and is vital to the U.S. economy and removing tariff exemptions could cost U.S. households roughly $300 each in 2027.
However, Trump’s threats to scrap the deal aren’t being taken lightly.
“If the Americans walk away from CUSMA, we’ll have to figure out some kind of trade structure because there is just so much cross-border activity that would be devastating to American industry,” Eby said.
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