As Canadians head to the polls Monday, attention is being paid to whether Quebec voters will put sovereignty on the backburner this federal election in the face of the threats from the United States.
Ipsos polls conducted for Global News throughout the campaign have showed signs the province’s decades-long separatist movement might be put to the side and replaced with Canadian solidarity.
The province’s electoral landscape has swung dramatically in the federal Liberals’ favour since U.S. President Donald Trump‘s turbulent return to office in January.
In the last federal election, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals split most of Quebec’s 78 seats. Recent polls, however, show that support for the Bloc has softened, and both the Liberals and Conservatives are expected to gain a few seats.
Pollster Sebastien Dallaire told Global News last week it’s hard to miss the long shadow Trump is casting north of the border, which will possibly lead historically blue ridings to turn red.
Some Quebecers have told Global News their allegiance shift isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the Liberals, but a calculated move in the face of Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation.
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Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has pivoted his message in the final days of the campaign. He says he believes Liberal Leader Mark Carney will be elected the next prime minister, and is trying to convince voters to give him the balance of power in what could be a Liberal minority government.
Latest polling
The latest Ipsos poll conducted for Global News and released Sunday has Mark Carney’s Liberal Party holding a four-percentage point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives on the eve of Monday’s general election.
But the tight national race obscures the Liberals’ advantage in the key provinces of Ontario and Quebec that will likely determine if the party receives a fourth consecutive mandate from Canadian voters.
The new data from Ipsos has the Liberals at 42 per cent support nationally, followed by 38 per cent for the Conservatives, nine per cent for the NDP and five per cent for the Bloc Québécois.
In Quebec, the Liberals are at 40 per cent followed by the Bloc Québécois at 25 per cent, the Conservatives at 24 per cent and the NDP with just six per cent support.
Bloc-held ridings that could flip
Some of the Bloc-held ridings that could turn red are Terrebonne, an off-island suburb north of Montreal that has voted almost exclusively for the Bloc Québécois since the party’s founding in 1991. This time, poll aggregator 338Canada has the federal riding as a toss-up between the Bloc and the Liberals.
Other blue ridings around Montreal also seem to be within the Liberals’ grasp. The Bloc could even lose leader Yves-François Blanchet’s own Beloeil-Chambly riding.
“All these seats could be in danger, because usually when one flips, they all flip,” said Philippe J. Fournier, 338Canada’s creator.
This would be a dramatic shift in a province that has seen the Bloc rival the Liberals in the last two elections, winning 32 seats to the Liberals’ 35, out of 78 in total.
While the Island of Montreal votes Liberal, the surrounding suburbs and other regions are fertile ground for the Bloc.
The Conservatives reliably win a few seats around Quebec City, while the NDP has been reduced to a single Montreal riding since 2019.
Poll opening hours
Polls will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time across Quebec Monday.
Polls in electoral districts spanning more than one time zone like Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine–Listuguj will be open from 8:30-8:30 EDT/9:30–9:30 ADT.
–with files from Alex Boutilier and The Canadian Press
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
