As Ottawa gears up to launch a new agency to build homes faster, internal government documents describe how dire the housing situation has become in Canada.
Briefing materials prepared for incoming Housing Minister Gregor Robertson this past May were released this week, which acknowledge that costly housing is hurting the economy and making it difficult for people to find places to live.
“Vulnerable populations and lower-income households are struggling to have their basic housing needs met due to a lack of suitable affordable housing,” the documents say.
Middle-class Canadians are also struggling to buy homes and are staying in rental units longer, “placing additional pressures on rental supply and increasing rental costs.”
Canada’s rapid population growth in recent years has outpaced growth in other G7 nations and is “compounding pressures and costs for communities,” the documents say.
Elsewhere in the briefing materials, bureaucrats note that Ottawa’s plans to tamp down on population growth are expected to slow economic activity and keep home prices lower than they would be otherwise.
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Prepared during the peak of uncertainty tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the documents also contend that trade disruption would “create significant uncertainty on overall investments and prices.”
The documents predict that Canadian home prices will grow faster in 2025 but cool over the next two years, while housing starts will slow down this year but remain above the 10-year average.
Rental supply is expected to grow while demand falls with slower population growth, pushing the vacancy rate higher, the documents say.
Projections in Robertson’s briefing materials are based on forecasts from BMO, RBC, the Canadian Real Estate Association and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
Government figures in the briefing binder show the cost of constructing a residential building in Canada has increased 58 per cent since 2020 and could rise even further, thanks to U.S. tariffs.
The documents say the government has fallen behind on investing in housing offered below market rates, a shortfall that is hitting newcomers and vulnerable Canadians especially hard.
Canada’s stock of non-market affordable homes stands at four per cent of the total housing mix, short of the OECD average of seven per cent.
The briefing materials show that average nightly homeless shelter use rose 43 per cent between 2020 and 2023. Lengths of shelter stays are also increasing, the documents note, suggesting barriers to ending homelessness.
The federal government plans to create a new Build Canada Homes agency to ramp up the pace of affordable homebuilding and encourage builders to adopt new technologies.
The briefing documents note that Canada’s construction sector has fallen behind its peers on embracing new tech.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said at the Liberal caucus retreat earlier this week that his government would launch the new agency in the coming days.
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