It took less than two years after the federal government’s cap on international students was introduced for the effects to start to show.
A roughly 50-per cent reduction in the number of overseas students who could study in Ontario hit colleges hardest, with a massive drop in enrolment and a growing financial crisis.
But new data suggests the policy changes that came with the federal cuts hurt the sector more broadly, making the option of studying in Ontario less appealing for many international students.
A briefing deck created by the Ministry of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security in mid-2025 revealed institutions were struggling to attract even the lower number of students they were allowed to.
The document, obtained by Global News using freedom of information laws, found that as of June 5, 2025, Ontario’s colleges had only managed to use 46 per cent of the provincial attestation letters (or PALs) given to them to attract students.
Those letters can be handed out by colleges to potential students, who then use them to apply for a study permit from the federal government.
Being given a PAL doesn’t guarantee a visa, and, in some cases, the federal government has denied visas to students who hold offer letters from provincial colleges or universities.
The provincial government estimates that approval rates for visas have fallen in the past two years by between 46 and 68 per cent.
The data shows that colleges had found it substantially harder than universities to use their places.
Over the course of 2024, Ontario’s universities used 82 per cent of the PALs they were given by the province. Of those offer letters, they were able to enrol 57 per cent of students they approached.
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In the college sector, the numbers were far lower.
Colleges only used 55 per cent of the PALs the government assigned to them. Then, once the offers went out, they were only able to enrol 33 per cent of those students.
While colleges were allowed to offer places to 150,000 more international students than universities, they only ended up enrolling 33,030 in 2024 compared to 16,649 across the university sector.
One expert believes the disconnect comes from federal changes, which massively reduced the graduate work permit options international students were given when they graduate in Ontario.
“By revoking the postgraduate work permit, you sort of obliterate the demand for that,” Elizabeth Buckner, associate professor of higher education at the University of Toronto, explained.
“It’s sort of limiting career options by changing postgraduate work generally. And then I think there is this much broader issue, which is that Canada’s reputation as a study destination has been negatively affected. Canada is now seen as less welcoming, less of an easy path to immigration… but safety is a big one (too).”
Part of the issue, Buckner contends, is that colleges are generally seen as a place for people to train and make connections in a particular career, so local graduate opportunities can be key.
Universities, meanwhile, are often about broader learning in an international context and are potentially viewed as more transferable.
“Often what come with any post-secondary experience is the network, the contacts, the entry (into the labour force),” she said.
“The degree itself from Canada, even if hypothetically your skills and knowledge might be better if you have a college degree from here, you have much less entry into the labour market.. part of the goal of a college degree is transition into the labour market — and the local labour market.”
Across Ontario’s colleges that struggle appears to have played out in the data seen by Global News.
Conestoga College was told it could offer 19,885 places to students, but only managed to write 11,159 offer letters. Just 4,469 students were actually enrolled by the fall.
At Seneca, the college was allowed 20,388 PALs, handed out 9,542 and only actually enrolled 2,380 students.
Before the cap, on average, international student tuition accounted for roughly one-third of college revenue.
Those figures are part of the reason colleges are struggling financially, closing campuses and laying off staff.
In response to the growing financial crisis, the Ford government announced it would allow colleges to again raise tuition fees broadly in line with inflation and moved student finance from a grant-heavy approach to introduce more loans.
It also added billions of dollars to base funding for the sector.
“Amid repeated federal policy changes that have destabilized Canada’s postsecondary sector, our government has stepped up to provide the largest investment in postsecondary education in Ontario’s history,” a spokesperson for the provincial government said in a statement.
“In February, we announced a new long-term funding model, which will bring an additional $6.4 billion to our colleges, universities, and Indigenous Institutes and raise annual operating funding from $5 billion to $7 billion starting this fall.”
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